DeJa Vu? Hillary's felling the Bern

Hillary Clinton

I know what Hillary Clinton is feeling.  I've played sports pretty much my entire life.  There are times in a sporting event when you are winning comfortably and you just know that you are the better team. You have better coaches, you have more talent, and you have prepared better than the team you're playing against. You expect to win.   But the team you are playing against didn't get the memo.  They keep fighting.  They are scrappy.   The dive for every loose ball.   They fight for every point.   And you look up at the scoreboard at halftime and the score is tied.   When that happens, especially if you lost your last game in very similar circumstances, the thought goes through your mind, "here we go again".  Sometimes you can get it together and go on to victory, but sometimes, the other guy wins.

Two of my daughters play competitive volleyball, and both have had some success.  The last thing I always say to them before they go out on the court is "remember, the other team wants to win too".  That's the lesson the Clinton campaign is finding out this week, and I know somewhere in the back of her mind Hillary is hearing that voice saying "here we go again".   Eight years ago Hillary Clinton was in a much stronger position against then Senator Barrack Obama than she is today against Bernie Sanders.   Her lead in the polls was larger, her gap in fundraising was larger, and she had much more momentum 3 weeks out from the Iowa Caucuses.  And she still lost.  I've noticed this week several signs that she may be headed for another defeat in Iowa, and she almost certainly won't win New Hampshire.   The conventional political wisdom is that Hillary will get on a roll once they reach the Southern States and the African American support will carry her to victory.   That was also the conventional political wisdom when she lost eight years ago.

Here are some reasons I think Hillary is now feeling the Bern:

1.  Sanders is now tied with her in Iowa.   This is huge.  The latest Real Clear Politics Average of polling data has Hillary and Sanders virtually tied, 45.5% to 45.3% with 5% for Martin O'Malley.   Since O'Malley is pretty much a male version of Clinton on policy, it's safe to say that most of his voters, for whatever reason, just don't want to support Hillary.  Should he drop out, I think most of those votes go to Sanders.

2.  Sanders will win New Hampshire.  The same Real Clear Politics Average of polling data shows Sanders ahead of Hillary 48.8% to 42.6% wth O'Malley polling at 3%.   Sanders has represented the neighboring state of Vermont in Congress since 1991.   He has the home field advantage.  In our current political system, only one other candidate for President has lost both Iowa and New Hampshire and gone on to become President.   His name is William Jefferson Clinton.

Chelsea Clinton in New Hampshire

3.  Chelsea Clinton is lying on the campaign trail about Sanders' positions.  To be fair, Chelsea isn't technically lying, but she is being misleading. She said yesterday at a campaign stop in New Hampshire that "Sen. Sanders wants to dismantle Obamacare, dismantle the CHIP program, dismantle Medicare, and dismantle private insurance.... I worry if we give Republicans Democratic permission to do that, we’ll go back to an era—before we had the Affordable Care Act—that would strip millions and millions and millions of people off their health insurance."  While it's technically true that Sanders wants to replace Obamacare, what he wants to replace it with is a universal healthcare system that would actually guarantee all Americans health insurance.   And the Clinton campaign knows this.   That statement is simply an attempt to play on the fears of Americans who don't know better, a tactic used successfully in President Bill Clinton's campaigns for President.   When politicians start lying about their opponents positions, you know they're getting nervous.

Bernie Sanders

4.  Bernie Sanders is a white male.  Hillary Clinton lost 8 years ago to a one term African American Senator from Chicago whose father was from Kenya and whose name was Barrack Hussein Obama.  Read that sentence again out loud.   How could she not be nervous about losing to a white male Senator from Vermont who has served in the United States Congress since 1991?   Let's face it, there are still people in this country who will not be comfortable voting for a woman for President.   It's not an insurmountable obstacle but it's there.  If you don't think people in this country are more comfortable with white male leadership, go take a look at the list of CEOs of the Fortune 500 companies then come back and talk to me.   Sanders won't enjoy the advantage that President Obama had with African Americans and Latinos, but he also won't have to fight nearly as hard to win the white vote.

Back to my sports days.  Some of those games I referenced earlier my teams have managed to win.  We did it by staying focused, by continuing to work hard, and concentrating on our game plan.  Some we managed to win because of a lucky bounce or a referee's call, things we did not control.  My advice to Hillary at this point would be to continue to play your game.   You can't count on Bernie going away, team Sanders is too scrappy.   But you don't have to start bending the rules.   Sometimes when you grab the other guy's jersey the referee sees you and calls a foul.  Then you get penalized.   Chelsea got away with a foul yesterday but the referees don't miss all the calls.  Play a hard, clean game and let the best team win.  And don't forget, you have one of the best closers of all time, President Clinton, sitting on your bench.  I know you're getting that deja vu feeling, I've had it too.  Now is the time to go out and compete.  If you want it, go get it.  But remember, the other guy wants to win too.

President Bill Clinton